New Delhi: Due to global economic and geopolitical conditions, purchases by central banks and increasing demand from investors, gold has performed brilliantly in 2024 and has given more than 20% return which is much better than Nifty and BSE Sensex. As of 18 December 2024, BSE Sensex has increased by 8,867.11 points (12.43%) to 80,182.20 compared to last year. At the same time, Nifty 50 has increased by 2,780.20 points (12.98%) to reach 24,198.85. Let us know how will be the return of gold in 2025.

However, in 2025, gold will face challenging factors such as the strength of the US dollar and cryptocurrencies. According to rating agency ICRA, the price of gold has increased by 25% this financial year and it has been moving upwards for seven consecutive quarters. Apart from this, gold gave a return of 15% in 2023 and 14.38% in 2022. At the same time, gold prices rose by 24.59% and 28.24% in 2019 and 2020, while it declined in 2021.

However, in 2024, two major events affected the demand for gold. One of these was the reduction in custom duty in July 2024, which led to a decline in gold prices. The second event was the US election results, after which the dollar index (DXY) strengthened, which proved to be negative for gold. ICRA believes that domestic gold jewellery consumption may see an annual growth of 14-18%, while the demand for gold still remains strong.

Gold may face three major challenges in 2025. First, Donald Trump becoming the President of America, second, the Union Budget of 2025 and third, the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Trump's arrival may increase global instability, which may be positive for gold, but a strong dollar may reduce the rise in gold. Apart from this, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of investors, which may be negative for gold.

Anurag Gupta, Head of Commodity and Currency, HDFC Securities, believes that gold may rise to around Rs 82,000 in 2025, but it will face strong resistance at the level of Rs 84,500. He says, "Gold still has the potential for attractive returns, and it may see improvement due to the purchase of central banks and strong inflows in ETFs."