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Stock Market Outlook : The upcoming week is expected to be crucial for the Indian stock market as several key economic indicators will be released. Data such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), trade deficit figures, and minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) recent monetary policy meeting will likely influence market trends. Investors remain cautious due to the weakening rupee against the US dollar.
In Friday's trading session, the Indian stock market extended its losing streak for the eighth consecutive day, marking the longest such decline in the past two years. The Nifty 50 index dropped 102.15 points (0.44%) to settle at 22,929.25, while the Sensex slipped 199.76 points (0.26%) to close at 75,939.21.
Biggest Weekly Decline of 2025
Between February 10 and February 14, the Nifty experienced a sharp 2.8% decline, making it the worst week of 2025 in terms of losses. The real estate sector bore the brunt of this downturn, with the Nifty Realty Index plummeting over 9% during the week. Similarly, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index suffered a 6% decline.
The broader market segments also faced significant corrections. The Nifty Midcap 150 Index recorded its biggest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, while the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index plunged 9.5%, marking its steepest fall since the pandemic crash.
BSE Midcap and Smallcap Indices Tumble
The selling pressure extended beyond large-cap stocks. The BSE Midcap Index dropped 2.59%, while the BSE Smallcap Index witnessed an even steeper decline of 3.24%.
Market volatility wasn't solely driven by domestic factors; global economic data also played a role. Investors are now keenly watching:
- US Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes
- US jobless claims data
- Manufacturing and service PMI reports
These global factors could further shape the direction of the Indian stock market in the coming weeks.
Technical Analysis: Weakness Signals Continue
According to Rishikesh Yedve, Assistant Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, the Nifty 50 Index has formed a red candle on both daily and weekly charts, indicating further weakness.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance Zone: 23,260 - 23,300 (21-day moving average)
- Breakout Potential: If Nifty crosses 23,300, a bullish rally could follow.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) Continue to Sell
Last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded over ₹19,000 crore worth of shares, adding pressure to the market. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) stepped in, purchasing stocks worth ₹18,745 crore, helping cushion some losses.
Bank Nifty Faces Key Resistance & Support Levels
Punit Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, highlighted that Bank Nifty ended the week down 2.11%.
- Key Resistance: 49,650 – If Bank Nifty surpasses this level, it could climb to 50,200.
- Major Support: 48,700 – A break below this level could lead to further downside toward 48,000.
